Abstract
Forecasting tools often collapse uncertainty into a confident answer. Signal Atlas uses a different unit of work: a source-grounded forecast packet. A packet records the question, decision context, information cutoff, source ledger, scenario set, provisional probabilities or qualitative weights, update triggers, refusal boundaries, and later postmortem notes.
This note introduces the workflow and schema used by Signal Atlas and its first focused product, Market Morning Map, a pre-market scenario brief for active traders who want context without trade calls.
Core claim
Protocol stages
1. Question framing
Convert a vague request into a bounded question with decision context, horizon, and excluded advice surfaces.
2. Freshness gate
Record the as-of timestamp, current context snapshot, and source dates before scenario language is written.
3. Source ledger
Separate primary sources, market data, reputable reporting, commentary, and user-provided context.
4. Scenario map
Generate two to four plausible paths with assumptions, indicators, and what would invalidate each read.
5. Human review
Check for stale evidence, overconfidence, advice drift, missing caveats, and source/claim mismatch.
6. Postmortem loop
After the horizon resolves, log what happened, which triggers mattered, and whether the packet structure helped.
Minimum packet schema
| Field | Purpose |
|---|---|
| question | The bounded uncertainty being mapped. |
| as_of_timestamp | When the packet was prepared; prevents stale-answer ambiguity. |
| information_cutoff | Latest evidence included in the read. |
| current_context_snapshot | Observed context at answer time, especially for market-adjacent requests. |
| source_ledger | URLs, titles, source classes, and source dates. |
| scenario_map | Probabilities or weights plus assumptions. |
| update_triggers | Conditions that would change the view. |
| refusal_boundary | What the packet will not answer or prescribe. |
| postmortem | Resolution notes and scoring when appropriate. |
Market Morning Map specialization
Before the bell
What changed overnight, which macro/catalyst items matter, and which risk tells deserve attention.
Open-to-10:30 scenarios
Continuation, fade, chop, and invalidation paths with explicit triggers.
Freshness first
Every useful map should show its as-of time, source dates, and what evidence would make it stale.
Paper path
This method note is the public base for a later paper/preprint. The next research artifact is a resolved sample ledger with enough source-dated examples to evaluate freshness, traceability, and postmortem discipline.