See what is likely, why, and what would change it. Every Signal Atlas forecast carries dated sources, competing scenarios, explicit triggers, and a resolution rule.
The example instrument shows the packet structure. It is not a live forecast or a recommendation.
No quiet rewrite after the outcome becomes obvious.
The source and rule are written before the forecast ships.
Resolved forecasts are scored against explicit baselines.
The public record says when the evidence is too young to judge.
A forecast should remain inspectable after the headline moment passes. Open an example to see the resolution rule, evidence posture, and scoring state.
Bureau of Labor Statistics release against the published consensus threshold.
Resolved yes in this illustrative row. Brier score: 0.1764.
The probability, threshold, and official source remain attached after resolution.
Official range confirmation within the announced launch window.
Resolved no in this illustrative row. Brier score: 0.3969.
The miss stays in the ledger. It is not deleted or softened after the fact.
Named operator docket with a written close date and partial-approval rule.
Seven dated sources in the example packet, five from primary sources.
A wording change that turns full approval into a conditional outcome.
The estimate matters. The surrounding structure tells you whether it deserves attention and when it should change.
Every source is dated, classified, and attached to the claim it supports.
The main case, counter-case, and conditional paths remain visible together.
Observable events tell you when to update rather than improvise.
The packet defines whether partial approval resolves yes, no, or requires a separate scenario.
Signal Atlas is building a public ledger of frozen forecasts and resolved outcomes. At small sample sizes, the only supportable claim is transparency.
Open the calibration record| Illustrative forecast row | Frozen p | Resolution source | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI print at or below consensus | 0.58 | BLS release | yes | 0.1764 |
| Heavy-lift launch inside announced window | 0.63 | Range confirmation | no | 0.3969 |
| Interconnection reform approved this quarter | 0.34 | Operator docket | open | — |
These rows demonstrate the ledger contract, not a live performance claim. The public record page renders real backend output when a verified calibration record is deployed beside the site.
The same evidence and accountability layer supports one-off questions, recurring market context, and event-market resolution audits.
A bounded forecast with a source ledger, scenarios, counter-case, update triggers, and a frozen probability.
Forecast Packet 02 Begin the morning with contextA recurring pre-market map for the lanes you already watch, with freshness failures left visible.
Market Morning Map 03 Audit how a market resolvesInspect wording, source quality, timing, oracle risk, and counter-cases before trusting the headline probability.
Prediction Market ProThe protocol makes the reasoning trail visible before the forecast ships, then keeps the original estimate visible after the world answers.
See all six protocol stepsBuild a dated source ledger and search deliberately for the strongest contradiction.
Define the resolution rule, scenarios, and the observation that would shift the view.
Lock the probability at issuance, record the outcome once, and report the score honestly.
We will return the scope, resolution rule, boundary, and price before you pay anything.