What a Forecast Packet does
A packet maps uncertainty around a serious question. It does not claim to know the future. It organizes current signals, plausible paths, watch triggers, and what would change the outlook.
Inputs
- The question being asked.
- Public signals and source trail.
- Known uncertainties and missing evidence.
- Constraints that matter to the decision.
Outputs
- Bottom line.
- Scenario map.
- Confidence level.
- Watch triggers.
- Caveats and next review point.
How to read one
Use the packet as a thinking tool before a decision, not as an instruction. Good packets make assumptions visible, separate signals from guesses, and give you concrete things to watch.