SIGNALS LIVE CPI cooling ▲ FED CUT ODDS 62% ▲ SHIPPING RISK elevated ▼ POLYMARKET VOL +18% ▲
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SCENARIO MAP Hold · 46% Cut · 34% Hike · 20% WATCH NEXT ⌖ CPI · Jun 12 ⌖ Jobs · Jul 03
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What public signals would move the “Fed cuts before September” market?

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on-chain · macro
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How likely is an oil spike that touches my Q4 input costs?

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Is the market over-pricing the odds of three cuts this year?

futures · CPI
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How likely is a shipping disruption touching global lead times?

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forecast_packet · fed-cut-sep-2026.atlas
Will the Fed deliver a rate cut before the September 2026 meeting?
Lean yes
Moderate · 58%

Bottom line

A cut by September is the modestly favored path, but it hinges on two more soft inflation prints. The market may be over-pricing certainty.

Scenario map

Cut by Sep58%
Hold through30%
Hike / shock12%

Current signals

  • Core CPI cooling two months running
  • Futures pricing ~62% by Sep
  • Labor softening but not breaking

Watch triggers

  • June & July CPI prints
  • Next jobs report < 100k
  • FOMC dot-plot shift

Resolution risk

  • Market wording: "before Sep meeting" date edge
  • Emergency-cut tail not captured by polls

Action implications

Research note: the gap between model (58%) and market (62%) is thin. Treat as scenario context — not an instruction to take any position.

Source trail

BLS CPICME FedWatchFOMC minutesPolymarket book

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